Casas Adobes, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

633
FXUS65 KTWC 012115
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
215 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure will result in dry and warm
conditions across southeast Arizona this week. High temperatures
will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Easterly breezes today will
back off to start the work week but then return to the area again
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another Chamber of Commerce day with afternoon
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to 80 degrees under abundant
sunshine. Winds have mostly been out of the east at 10 to 15 mph
with higher gusts. Satellite imagery this afternoon showed mainly
high clouds approaching the area from the southwest. These clouds
will overspread the area this evening with mainly partly cloudy
skies prevailing overnight which will bring mild lows to the area.

Monday through Wednesday: Dry and warm with high temperatures
mostly 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Easterly winds back off
Monday and Tuesday before returning to the area on Wednesday.
Pressure gradient across the area will be a bit stronger Wednesday
into Thursday than what occurred this morning, thus expect higher
wind gusts into Thursday morning.

Days 4 thru 7 (Thursday thru Sunday):
Remaining warm with high temperatures mostly 4 to 8 degrees above
normal. Winds back off to normal diurnal trends Friday into next
weekend. On the precipitation side, an upper level low off Baja CA
has the potential to spread some mid-level moisture across the
area. Any precip, if it occurs with chances less than 15%, would
be rather light and mostly SE of Tucson Thursday or Friday. No
changes were made to the NBM baseline forecast.

8 to 14 day outlook (Feb 9-15):
Temperature: Leaning above normal (40-50%)
Precipitation: Likely above normal (50-60%)

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/12Z.
Incrg clouds AOA 20k ft AGL from SW thru 02/05z then BKN-SCT
conds thru end of valid pd. ELY/SELY SFC wind generally 12 kts
or less thru the forecast period, with some gusts to 20-25 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal into at least the middle of the week. 20-foot winds will
be easterly today, with wind speeds of 10-15 mph and some gusts to
around 25 mph in locations exposed to east winds. 20-foot winds
will then be less than 15 mph and terrain driven Monday and
Tuesday. There is the potential for a stronger easterly wind event
in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame this week. Minimum RH levels
at all elevations will generally be in the 13-25 percent range
into the middle of this week, except for a 5-10 percent increase
across the eastern half of southeast Arizona on Monday. Minimum RH
levels then increase into the 18-30 percent range Thursday
through next weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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